second team Edward Kelly Credit Suisse
third team Deborah Weinswig Citi
Dubbed by one fund manager “the dean of the supermarket and drug retail space,” Meredith Adler of Barclays Capital seizes the top spot for an eighth consecutive year. Adler, 55, was on the money when she upgraded Dollar Tree from hold to buy in November 2007, at $26.21, on the Chesapeake, Virginia–based discount store chain’s growing market share. The stock soared to $43.25 — a gain of 65 percent that far outdistanced the sector’s 14.2 percent drop — in April 2009, and she downgraded it to hold. Adler told investors the company’s strong performance didn’t appear sustainable in a weakening economy, but her downgrade appears to have been premature: The shares advanced 15.5 percent further, to $49.94, through August.
Newcomer Edward Kelly shoots straight to second place. The Credit Suisse analyst is praised by supporters for being “appropriately skeptical about his companies” and “ahead of the curve” on Walgreen Co. Kelly upgraded the Deerfield, Illinois–based drugstore chain from neutral to outperform in July 2008, on improving profitability. Through August 2009 the stock was ahead of the sector by 15 percentage points.
Repeat third-teamer Deborah Weinswig is “one of the best communicators on the Street,” insists one buy-side backer. The Citi analyst, who also is No. 1 in Retailing/Broadlines & Department Stores, advised clients to sell Kroger Co. in February, at $22.91, on the belief that the Cincinnati-based supermarket operator would suffer in a “modern-day price war” with competitors. Within a month the stock had fallen 15.1 percent, to $19.46, but by August 31 it had recovered to $21.59.
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