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Quantitative Research

Takaaki Yoshino of Daiwa Institute of Research retains the crown for a fourth consecutive year.

Takaaki Yoshino Daiwa Institute

second team Takashi Suwabe Goldman Sachs

third team Shun Maruyama Credit Suisse

runners-up Takashi Ito Nomura; Hiromichi Tamura Nomura

Takaaki Yoshino of Daiwa Institute of Research retains the crown for a fourth consecutive year. Clients praise Yoshino, 43, for "analyzing the market from a wide variety of angles" and for his "unique theme- and topic-based reports." One such study compared the effectiveness of quarterly versus annual accruals — that is, operating profit minus operating cash flow — in identifying stocks likely to produce higher returns. His conclusion: Quarterly accruals on their own are not more effective, but accruals combined with price-earnings ratios are, because "accruals reflect the quality of earnings and P/E the quality of a company’s valuation based on those earnings." In second place for a third straight year is Takashi Suwabe of Goldman Sachs (Japan), who according to one money manager "conducts very sophisticated — but not too complicated — research studies." In September, Suwabe told clients that in a bear market environment with weak investor sentiment, stocks with strong fundamentals would underperform, and small-cap stocks would outperform large caps in the near term. Through February small caps outpaced large caps by 8.7 percentage points. Newcomer Shun Maruyama takes third-place honors. The Credit Suisse strategist reported in January that conservative earnings forecasts had left defensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals and retailers undervalued; among the companies he picked to outperform this year were pharmaceuticals manufacturer Tsumura & Co. and FamilyMart Co., which operates thousands of convenience stores in Japan and overseas. In late February the stocks were ahead of the broad market by 2.9 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively.

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2009 All-Japan Research Team Rankings

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