Hidehiko Hoshino UBS

second team Katsushi Saito Nomura

third team Hirosuke Tai Daiwa Institute

Hidehiko Hoshino held the No. 2 spot for the past five years; this year he climbs one rung to claim top honors for the first time since 2003. Money man­agers praise the UBS analyst for his “original ideas” and “feeling for stock prices.” Hoshino, 44, down­graded tool­maker Makita Corp. to neutral in October, at ¥1,925, on earnings pressure. By late February the stock price had inched up just 1.9 percent, to ¥1,961. After five years at No. 1, Katsushi Saito of Nomura Securities Co. slips to second place. Saito down­graded the sector to neutral in February 2008, anticipating softening demand and a strengthening yen. He was right: The Topix machinery index plunged 45.1 percent through February 2009 and trailed the broad market by 3.9 percentage points. “He questions the conventional thinking,” observes one buy-side supporter. In third place for a second straight year is Daiwa Institute of Research’s ­Hirosuke Tai, who is also ranked second in Plant Engineering & Shipbuilding. “He provides timely calls on turning points,” attests one backer. Tai down­graded air-­conditioner producer Daikin Industries to neutral in August, at ¥4,010, on the belief that rising steel prices would hurt profits. Sure enough, by late February the share price had cooled to ¥2,170.

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2009 All-Japan Research Team Rankings