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Himanshu Patel | Himanshu Patel JPMorgan SECOND TEAM Brian Johnson Barclays THIRD TEAM John Murphy Merrill Lynch RUNNERS-UP Rod Lache Deutsche |
Parked in first place for a second straight year is Himanshu Patel of JPMorgan Securities. “When I talk to the auto companies, they typically point me to him as someone who understands their story,” says one supporter. Patel, 33, downgraded Ford Motor Co. to sell in April, at $8.40, after declining sales had prompted valuation concerns about the Dearborn, Michigan–based automaker. By mid-September the stock had skidded 41.5 percent, to $4.91, compared with a sector loss of 21.0 percent. Also in April, Patel told clients to sell Akron, Ohio–based Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., on the belief that higher materials costs would put pressure on earnings. The stock had lost 32.5 percent by mid-September. Newcomer Brian Johnson, who moved to Barclays Capital after its parent acquired Lehman Brothers last month, speeds to the No. 2 spot, thanks in part to his insights into the implications of labor agreements. “That really stood out for me,” says one money manager. Johnson is also known for making long-term calls and standing behind them despite short-term disappointments. Case in point: BorgWarner, which he recommended in June, at $49.03, because he thought the Auburn Hills, Michigan–based transmission-component manufacturer would benefit from innovative technology that reduces auto emissions. Although the share price had slumped to $41.26 by mid-September, Johnson is holding fast. John Murphy of Merrill Lynch, who debuts in third, “was the most aggressive at identifying everything we should short very early,” says one hedge fund fan. Murphy’s recognition that Detroit’s American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings would face a slowdown following General Motors Corp.’s production cuts was especially prescient. After his downgrade to sell in August 2007, the stock took a 68.6 percent nosedive through mid-September 2008.
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