Capital Goods/Industrials - Machinery: First

ISI Group’s David Raso, 42, extends his winning streak to a 12th year. The All-­America Research Team Hall of Famer “digs deeper, runs harder and has more thorough knowledge than anyone else,” declares one booster. “There must be 27 hours in his day.” Raso, who tracks 15 stocks, downgraded Deere & Co. from buy to hold in February, at $87.37 — just 11 days and $0.65 shy of its 12-month peak — largely on valuation. Shares of the Moline, ­Illinois–based tractor maker, which Raso had rated a buy since December 2008, tumbled to $70.16 in June before rising to $75.11 by late August, for a life-of-call loss of 14 percent. During the same period the sector fell by 13.3 percent. In August, Raso reduced ­Ireland’s Ingersoll-­­Rand — another stock he had been recommending since 2008 — from buy to hold, on valuation. By that time the shares had skyrocketed more than 204 percent, from $13.79 to $41.96. The downgrade might have been premature, however; the stock had climbed to $46.76 by the end of that month. “David has the best global machinery contacts in the world and tirelessly travels the globe in search of inflection points,” proclaims another fan.