Edward Garlich Jr. & team Guggenheim Securities |
Edward Garlich Jr., who moved with his team from MF Global to Guggenheim Securities in December, plants his new firm’s flag in the No. 2 spot; the troop marks its third straight appearance in second place. The 13 analysts are “savvy and plugged in to Washington, and they’re always accessible,” according to one loyalist. For more than six months, they have been telling clients that, with regard to potential spending reductions and tax increases after year’s end, “nothing meaningful will be accomplished,” Garlich says, until after the November U.S. presidential and congressional elections. “The volatility created last summer in Washington during the debt crisis will be evenly matched or exceeded in the late fourth quarter of 2012,” he adds. “We remain buyers of anxiety going into November and December.” The Washington-based crew forecasts a credit crunch in the housing market next year, “when a plethora of new government rules on mortgage lending will take effect,” the team leader explains, citing stricter underwriting standards for insurance and limits on interest deductions, among others. The regulations will hurt those banks that depend heavily on mortgage-origination volume, as well as insurers for whom “there will be fewer mortgages to insure” — plus homebuilders, because fewer buyers will be able to secure the necessary credit. |
Economics & Strategy – Washington Research: Second