Economics & Strategy: Economics – Third

Luis Oganes & team J.P. Morgan

Luis Oganes leads J.P. Morgan’s 14-member contingent to a second straight third-place finish. “Luis heads a team that provides what I consider to be the best macroeconomic coverage in the region, providing insightful analysis from heavyweights like Brazil all the way down to Central America and the Caribbean,” proclaims one ally. The economists are generally constructive. “We expect Latin America to grow by only 2.9 percent in 2012, amid the global slowdown, but to accelerate back to 3.7 percent in 2013,” Oganes says. “Growth outperformers this year will be Chile, Mexico and Peru; the underperformers will be Argentina, Brazil and Colombia.” The group is keeping its eye on a number of issues that could affect those projections. “In the coming months we will monitor any potential impact of the surge in agricultural commodities prices on domestic food inflation, which could limit the central banks’ room to maneuver in case the external environment deteriorates further,” he says. “Other issues are whether stimulus measures finally gain traction in Brazil in the second half of the year, the presidential election in Venezuela in October, and the fate of the structural-reforms agenda over the next year in Mexico.” — Thomas W. Johnson

RUNNER(S)-UP
David Beker, Marcos Buscaglia & team Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Guilherme da Nóbrega, Ilan Goldfajn & team Itaú BBA
Eduardo Loyo & team BTG Pactual