Erwin Dut & team, Kempen & Co.
Erwin Dut’s band of six at Kempen & Co. leaps from runner-up to second place. The Amsterdam-based analysts follow 68 companies and are “especially good stock pickers,” declares one portfolio manager. The team sees cause for optimism in the coming months. “Investors are defensively positioned and heavily underweighted in Europe,” Dut explains. “We believe the biggest upside is in the stocks that have been heavily sold off in 2011 and are trading on depressed valuation multiples, as if earnings are never going to recover.” One example: PostNL, a Dutch outfit that provides e-commerce, mail and parcel services across northern Europe and Italy. The company’s minority stake in courier services provider TNT Express “is undervalued and poised for a recovery, while the implied negative value for Dutch mail makes no sense,” Dut insists. He and his colleagues believe the stock will reach €3.50 by the end of the year — a gain of more than 50 percent.