The 2014 All-Asia Research Team: Currency & Rates Strategy, No. 2: Craig Chan & team

Nomura slips to second place after a year on top. Now under the leadership of newcomer Craig Chan, the strategists remain highly regarded among clients. “They have been especially good on India and recognizing the volatility of the currency markets, with some good insights on how that would play out,” one admirer remarks. “They can’t really forecast — it’s impossible to do that — but they do a good job providing possible scenarios. With the huge volatility last April to August,” the supporter adds, their influence is such that “we got out of the Asian market.” For the balance of 2014, Singapore-based Chan reports, “we continue to reiterate our thesis of differentiation within Asia based on major themes from the U.S. economic recovery and Federal Reserve tapering, China’s economic risks and political and monetary policy divergences.” The analysts in December forecast that India’s rupee will continue to outperform it regional peers this year, driven largely by the outcome of general elections in April and May as well as expectations of reform and increased investment in the country. Similarly, Chan advises, they have been predicting that China’s renminbi will appreciate against the dollar in 2014, “despite the People’s Bank of China’s regime shift to introduce foreign exchange volatility, which was in part to curb speculative inflows.” Year to date through late April, the rupee strengthened 1.2 percent against the dollar, to 61.06, while the renminbi weakened 1 percent, to 6.17.