Ilan Goldfajn & team Itaú BBA First-place appearances: 0
Total appearances: 6
Team debut: 2003 Although Ilan Goldfajn and his Itaú BBA cohorts slip one position on this lineup to third place, clients maintain that they produce “very useful, in-depth research,” as one fund manager puts it. The firm fields a team of 15 economists dedicated to Latin America, stationed in Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Santiago and São Paulo. The issues they are bringing to investors’ attention include U.S. employment conditions, which have an impact on the ability of Latin American countries to finance their current-account deficits; the Chinese economy and its effect on raw-materials prices, a leading indicator for exports and domestic growth; elections in Brazil then in Argentina and their implications for economic policy; the pace of reform in Mexico; and tax reform in Chile. Overall, Goldfajn says, his group is forecasting “a weakening trend in LatAm currencies next year, as global financing conditions change following expectations of U.S. rate hikes.” Regarding individual countries, he notes, the Itaú economists are predicting a brighter outlook for postelection Argentina, although the transition is expected to be bumpy; slow growth in Chile that will pave the way for late-2014 rate cuts, which could replace global drivers as a performance catalyst; “fast-growing” activity in Colombia and further rate hikes; a pickup in economic output in Mexico; and rate cuts in Peru as well as a likely recovery for 2015. This year, Goldfajn also directs, with Ciro Matuo, the first-place squad in Local-Markets Strategy; and he captains the No. 3 crew in Sovereign Debt.