Michael Harris
& team Bank of America
Merrill Lynch First-Place Appearances: 3
Total Appearances: 4
Team Debut: 2011 As he did last year, Michael Harris guides his Bank of America Merrill Lynch squads to first place on this roster and in Emerging-Europe Equity Strategy and Turkey Equity Strategy, while joining with Stephen Pettyfer in leading the crew that claims the No. 1 position in Middle East & North Africa Equity Strategy. The 44-year-old, London-based analyst and his colleagues “are the best at giving you the big-picture, macro, top-down view,” insists one fund manager. “They can tell you how the Federal Reserve’s tapering, interest rates, capital flows and current accounts will impact a region.” In mid-March the strategists advised investors that although most countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa were less susceptible to adverse effects of financial crises than they had been six months earlier, caution was still warranted. Despite improvements in many nations’ current-account balances and currency competitiveness, as well as moderation of the scorching pace of lending, capitalizations in some equity markets were still down by 8 to 10 percent year to date, in dollar terms, they noted. Adding to regional uncertainty, moreover, are political risks associated with elections this year in such countries as Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Romania, South Africa and Ukraine, among others — and clients would be wise to not underestimate the political challenges leaders face, the researchers counsel. Looking ahead, they believe that one outperformance in this sector will be Poland, whose shares are enjoying robust earnings revisions. In addition, the Central European stalwart posted a current-account surplus of €517 million ($711 million) in March, following four months’ deficits that culminated in a shortfall of €463 million in February, and its year-over-year real gross domestic product expanded at a 3.4 percent clip during the first quarter, the government estimated in May. After nearly 20 years at the firm, Harris left BofA Merrill in April to direct Turkey research at Renaissance Capital.