The 2014 Emerging EMEA Research Team: Economics, No. 2: Reinhard Cluse & team

Reinhard Cluse & team
UBS

First-place appearances: 1

Total appearances: 4

Team debut: 2011

UBS’s team of five researchers captained by Reinhard Cluse repeats in second place, winning plaudits for its “concentration on global issues,” as one money manager attests. Based in Cape Town, London and Moscow, the economists are “reasonably bullish” on Central Europe, says Cluse, because of the region’s close integration with its Continental neighbors to the west. They especially favor the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. “They will benefit from the recovery in Western Europe, which we believe will remain on track, despite its moderate fashion,” the team leader explains. “That will help these countries, which send a huge part of their exports to Western Europe and don’t have the structural vulnerabilities to the degree that we see them in Turkey and South Africa.” By contrast, the analysts are highlighting political and economic risks in Russia, South Africa and Turkey — the three biggest markets in the emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa universe. Concerns include the Crimea conflict and weak fixed investment in Russia, the lack of independence of Turkish state institutions such as the central bank and an absence of reform momentum in South Africa, according to Cluse. But, with those three markets, “it’s always a relative game,” he adds. “If one country is seen as being overshadowed by more problems, this might help another country.” After all, he notes, investors have been returning to Turkey while the Ukraine situation remains uncertain.

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