The 2014 All-Brazil Research Team: Corporate Debt, No. 2: Alexandre Müller

Alexandre Müller BTG Pactual First-place appearances: 1

Total appearances: 6

Team debut: 2008

Capturing the No. 2 position on this list for a fourth consecutive year is São Paulo–based BTG Pactual researcher Alexandre Müller, who “has no biases and supplies quality information,” one fund manager attests. The most important issues for Brazil, Müller contends, are “the resilience of the local labor market and how a deterioration of that market can translate into rising delinquency for the banking system.” Simultaneously, the rapid expansion of credit that the nation enjoyed over the past three years is no longer in evidence, he points out, and borrowers have fewer refinancing alternatives. Given a recent 20 basis point increase in nonperforming household loans, Müller adds, “we should track how a potentially worse labor market and slower credit growth can translate to higher nonperforming loans.” The country’s overall macroeconomic deterioration is also a source of concern, he notes, although companies, in general, are facing this challenge by cutting discretionary capital expenditures, extending debt amortization profiles and focusing on preserving strong liquidity positions.