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The 2014 All-Brazil Research Team: Economics, No. 1: Ilan Goldfajn

Ilan Goldfajn Itaú BBA First-place appearances: 2

Total appearances: 5

Team debut: 2010

In first place for a second year running is Itaú BBA researcher Ilan Goldfajn in São Paulo. “His reports and monthly calls always lead to good discussions,” declares one investor. The 48-year-old economist notes that Brazil is in a state of flux, given changing global financing conditions, its upcoming presidential election and an economic slowdown. “The fiscal stance in 2015 will also be closely monitored by the markets, as it could be an important input for the sovereign rating outlook,” Goldfajn says. “The stance of monetary policy next year will also be quite relevant for the inflation environment.” He sees downside risks for gross domestic product growth, especially for this year, owing to sagging business and consumer confidence. He also forecasts that the real will depreciate to near $2.40 toward the end of 2014 and will fall to $2.50 next year, “as liquidity conditions become a tad less favorable — with U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes approaching — and the country still having a high current-account deficit to adjust.” Brazil’s currency was trading at $2.22 late in July.

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