Economics & Strategy – Economics: Second

After two years in the runner-up position, the five-member crew at Morgan Stanley leaps to second place. Led by Elga Bartsch and Joachim Fels in London, the economists are hailed for their “political insight and knowledge of the big picture,” as one money manager puts it. An imminent rate cut by the European Central Bank is unlikely, Bartsch says, “barring a serious financial market correction in the coming months that would call into question the ECB’s assessment of a significant improvement in financial market confidence.” Down the road, however, the bank may be compelled to reduce rates even further than their current record lows. Although much of the region is in recession, “the first green shoots suggest that the pace of decline is no longer accelerating,” she notes. But “the need to deleverage, to rebalance and to fundamentally reform the euro area will likely dent domestic-demand dynamics for years — hence additional ECB easing will be needed as well.” — Carolyn Koo