This content is from: Research

Economics & Strategy – Economics: Third

Repeating in third place is J.P. Morgan’s group of seven under Malcolm Barr and David Mackie.

Malcolm Barr, David Mackie & team
J.P. Morgan

Repeating in third place is J.P. Morgan’s group of seven under Malcolm Barr and David Mackie. The economists, who are headquartered in London, win praise for their “detailed and nuanced coverage of the European crisis and the ramifications of the various policy decisions taken last year,” according to one U.K.-based money manager. The European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions program — a plan introduced last fall that allows the bank to buy bonds directly from euro zone member countries — “has effectively changed the risk characteristics of sovereign debt,” Mackie says. “A lot of risk around peripheral debt has essentially been taken off the table.” By acting as a lender of last resort, he explains, the ECB has given investors a great incentive to buy the higher-yielding bonds of periphery countries — Italy, Spain and so on — rather than those of so-called core countries (France, Germany), whose yields are close to zero for much of the short end of the curve. They should proceed with caution, though: “We’re in a more resilient, stable environment, but that doesn’t mean there’s not a lot of heavy lifting still to be done,” Mackie concludes. — Carolyn Koo


Runners-up

Laurence Boone & team Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Willem Buiter & team Citi
Jacques Cailloux & team Nomura International


Related Content