The 2013 All-America Research Team: Retailing/Broadlines & Department Stores, No. 3: Michael Exstein

Michael Exstein of Credit Suisse claims third place for a second straight year, though at least one investor holds that “Michael is the best” because “he is a maverick and combines his research with differentiated points of view on companies and stocks.” Exstein reports that he is “becoming more cautious on the group, as it feels increasingly like the sector is approaching a cyclical peak.” One exception, however, is Costco Wholesale Corp., he says. Although most of the membership warehouse chain’s competitors are attempting to increase consumables revenues as a percentage of their total businesses, he explains, Costco is instead focusing on general merchandise — and has thereby managed to grow traffic and comparable-store sales, which have been flat elsewhere. Exstein has had an outperform rating on Costco since May 2009, and reiterated the call most recently in early August. The shares were then up 34.1 percent for the trailing 12-month period, from $88.89 to $119.19, and ahead of the sector by 23.2 percentage points. — Katie Gilbert