Economics & Strategy – Economics: Third

It’s three consecutive years in third place for Nilson Teixeira of Credit Suisse. The global outlook is “quite complex,” the São Paulo–based economist observes, owing to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s looming reduction in bond purchases through its quantitative easing program as well as slowing economic expansion in Brazil. (In July the Ministry of Finance lowered its forecast from 3.5 percent to 3 percent real gross domestic product growth in 2013.) In the short term “we might see the dollar appreciate and the Brazilian real depreciate, pressuring inflation,” Teixeira predicts. “In response it’s likely that the Brazilian central bank will tend to tighten monetary policy more than most market players were expecting seven months ago.” In the medium term, however, history suggests that robust economic growth in the U.S. will spur gains in emerging markets, including Brazil. “Nilson provides the most detailed and thorough analysis of all dimensions of the Brazilian macroeconomy,” applauds one buy-side backer. — Carolyn Koo