Economics & Strategy – Economics: Second

Although he drops one notch from first place, where he spent the past three years, Eduardo Loyo continues to impress clients with his ability “to do high-level technical work without getting detached from real-world practicalities,” reports one money manager. “That’s a rare combination.” The BTG Pactual economist points out that multiple factors are affecting the Brazilian economy at the moment: civil unrest in the streets of Rio de Janeiro and other cities, concerns about changes in U.S. fiscal policy and questions about how Brazil’s central bank will tackle inflation, among others. The key issue in the near term is “how these factors will impact Brazil’s top macro priority: to rebalance domestic activity, relying progressively less on consumption demand and more on productive investment,” he explains. “This will be crucial for the country to grow faster and to mitigate inflation pressures.” Loyo, who is headquartered in Rio, counsels investors to avoid rushing to judgment. Public protests in other countries are not “entirely satisfactory off-the-shelf templates to understand what has been happening in Brazil or to figure out the policy response the demonstrations will elicit — or the effects these policies will have on economic performance,” he notes. — Carolyn Koo