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Economics & Strategy – Equity Strategy: First

Guilherme Paiva debuted in second place in 2010, climbed to the top the following year and has stayed there ever since.

Guilherme Paiva
Morgan Stanley
First-place appearances: 3

Total appearances: 4

Analyst debut: 2010

Guilherme Paiva debuted in second place in 2010, climbed to the top the following year and has stayed there ever since. The Morgan Stanley strategist is “consistent and methodical with both the macro and the micro,” attests one buy-side advocate. Investors should focus on exporters that sell products denominated in or linked to the dollar, the New York–based strategist believes, and steer clear of pure domestic plays, owing to the weak real. Government policies to increase wages have boosted consumption but squeezed margins at many companies, he explains. “We haven’t really seen progress in structural reforms,” the 38-year-old adds. “And, with a presidential election looming in October of next year, it will become tougher and tougher to address those issues.” His favored industries include aerospace manufacturers, food processors, iron-ore and steel producers, and pulp and paper companies. — Carolyn Koo


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