It’s three straight years at the summit for Wiktor Bielski’s four-analyst team at VTB Capital. The London-based crew expects demand for copper and iron ore to improve in the second half of the year, but growth is contingent on a couple of factors. The first is whether the strong lending cycle in China will translate to a significant increase in industrial spending. “We think that it will, given the government’s commitment to urbanization,” says Bielski, 53. Another issue: whether investors — particularly hedge funds — turn toward the euro and distressed European financial assets. “It would obviously be positive for the euro and would cap the dollar, and as a result, would be positive for commodities,” he adds. If these things happen, then “I would very much expect to see a combination of consumers moving toward some restocking and hedge funds looking to cover their short positions,” the strategist says. — Carolyn Koo |
Economics & Strategy – Commodities: First
