Rising one rung to reclaim the top spot is the Bank of America Merrill Lynch crew captained by Michael Harris, who also leads the equity strategy squads that finish first for coverage of Emerging Europe and Turkey, and co-directs (with Stephen Pettyfer) the troop deemed the best in Middle East & North Africa Equity Strategy. Harris, 43, “knows this entire market very well,” proclaims one buy-side supporter. The strategists are not optimistic about Central and Eastern Europe. “Poland faces fiscal and European Union–driven growth pressures,” the London-based leader says, while major EU headwinds make Hungary “one of the highest risks globally.” The team has underweight ratings on both of those countries and a market-weight rating on the Czech Republic, which is better positioned to benefit from increasing demand for exports from China and Germany, he notes. The analysts are upbeat on much of the Middle East, however, particularly Saudi Arabia (“a big opportunity if it keeps becoming more investable,” Harris says) and the United Arab Emirates (“Dubai stands out from the regional turbulence,” he adds). Top picks include Emaar Properties, which they added to their conviction buy list in May 2012, at 3.15 dirhams. Shares of the Dubai-based developer rocketed 89.5 percent, to 5.97 dirhams, and outpaced the broad market by an eye-popping 80.9 percentage points, through May 2013. The researchers remain bullish, citing the outfit’s accelerating project launches and improving profitability, among other factors. — Paul Sweeney |
Economics & Strategy – CEEMEA Equity Strategy: First
