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Daily Agenda: The Week Ahead, December 28, 2015 – January 1, 2016

U.S. oil supply data likely to show little sign of abating glut; ECB notes to give insight into policy moves; world welcomes 2016.

Light trading volume and low staff headcounts typify the stretch between Christmas and New Year’s. Nonetheless, there will be key data releases this coming week that could influence allocation decisions in 2016. Japan industrial numbers will help lend insight into the impact of ongoing Bank of Japan easing. Commodities analysts will be keeping their eyes on U.S. oil data for any signal that the ongoing supply glut might be finally nearing its peak.

Monday, December 28: Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases November industrial production data. October numbers showed a slight rebound on the back of increased shipments, while remaining down on a percentage basis versus the same month in 2014.

Tuesday, December 29: October Case-Shiller housing price index is expected to moderate slightly from the 5.5 percent annualized pace it registered for September. U.S. housing market strategists have largely downplayed any significant fallout from the December 16 rate hike by the Federal Reserve as both unemployment levels and mortgage interest rates remain low.

Wednesday, December 30: most analysts expect that the recent historic high oil stock levels will remain largely unchanged in the Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory report.

Thursday, December 31: After failing to fire a “bazooka” big enough to shock and awe debt market investors earlier this month, the release of the Meeting Account from the European Central Bank’s latest policy meeting will be carefully reviewed for any clues that more easing may be on the way. If the tone of the release is in step with ECB president Mario Draghi’s recent optimistic comments, more bearish pressure may result for sovereign debt markets there.

Friday, January 1: Markets will be closed worldwide in observance of New Year’s Day.

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