< The 2015 Latin America Research Team
Luis Oganes, Vladimir Werning & teamJ.P. MorganFirst-Place Appearances: 15
Total Appearances: 26
Team Debut: 1993For a third consecutive year, J.P. Morgan’s 13-strong squad earns the No. 2 position on this roster, garnering investor plaudits for “giving clear views on difficult credits,” in the words of one backer. Working out of London, Luis Oganes now directs the group with New York–based newcomer Vladimir Werning, who replaced his co-captain as head of Latin America research in April 2014, after Oganes was promoted to oversee the firm’s global emerging-markets efforts. The duo also shepherds a team to a runner-up spot on the Economics lineup. In addition, Oganes co-leads the third-place Local Markets Strategy squad, with Holly Huffman; while Werning, 44, joins with Diego Celedón in steering a crew that wins a runner-up spot for its coverage of Argentina. He graduated from Buenos Aires’ Universidad Torcuato Di Tella with an economics degree in 1995 and joined J.P. Morgan’s local office later that year to work as an economist, moving to New York in 2004. In general, these sovereign debt researchers are counseling that governments in Latin America do not have the option of deploying additional monetary stimulus to stimulate sluggish economies, even as they must reduce fiscal deficits and rein in debt accumulation while coping with new social demands. Particular areas of concern, they note, include Brazil’s efforts to retain its investment-grade rating; October general and presidential elections in Argentina, which will determine the government’s latitude in meeting market expectations on macro policy changes; Colombia’s attempt at economic rebalancing; and the wait for Mexico to break out of its low-growth performance after broad revamping and elections. Oganes, 48, says that the analysts — stationed in Mexico City, Miami, New York and São Paulo — recommend overweighting Mexico because the country’s “structural reform program and reaction to the move lower in oil [prices] by tightening fiscal policy point to a solid credit profile.”