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2015 All-America Research Team: Integrated Oil, No. 3: Paul Cheng

Repeating in third place, Paul Cheng, 51, “knows his stuff and has the data to back it up,” applauds one client.

Paul Cheng
Barclays
First-place appearances: 1

Total appearances: 13

Analyst debut: 2002

Repeating in third place, Paul Cheng, 51, “knows his stuff and has the data to back it up,” applauds one client. Surveying the lay of oil production land, the Barclays analyst says that output in the U.S. and globally remains resilient, although uncertainties surrounding the timing and volumes of incremental Iranian production and the intentions of Saudi Arabia will likely add near-term pressure to the market. As a result, “the likeliness of additional Iranian oil supplies may have pushed out the oil market recovery by 12 to 18 months,” he concludes. In this context, Cheng prefers the Canadian majors, most notably Calgary’s Suncor Energy. He has a price target of C$49 on the stock, which closed at C$34.05 in mid-September. “We believe the company offers a combination of predictable and better long-term production outlook versus peers, better geological and political risk profiles and an advantaged integrated business model,” he says. More than 80 percent of Suncor’s upstream production derives from oil sands, “which has essentially no geological risk,” the analyst notes, and 90 percent of its operations are located in either the U.S. or Canada. The Canadian dollar also provides “a partial natural hedge against oil prices,” he adds.


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