< The 2015 All-Europe Research Team
Mark Wall & team
Deutsche Bank
First-Place Appearances: 4
Total Appearances: 9
Team Debut: 1997
Notching its fourth consecutive appearance at the top of this slate, the Deutsche Bank team of four is now directed solely by London-based Mark Wall. His erstwhile co-leader, Gilles Moec, moved to Bank of America Merrill Lynch in November. The Deutsche economists “provide the most consistent and insightful commentary and analysis around the fundamentals and options in the euro zone crisis,” observes one asset manager. The 42-year-old crew chief and his colleagues correctly forecast that the European Central Bank would implement a quantitative easing program in the first quarter of 2015, and just days before the policymakers announced their bond-buying scheme the economists raised their forecasts for the euro area’s real gross domestic product growth from 1.0 percent to 1.3 percent this year and from 1.3 percent to 1.6 percent in 2016. “We split the outlook between the challenges of the first few quarters of 2015 and the potential for a more positive outcome beyond that,” explains Wall. “The transition will in part depend on successful ECB QE and the stabilization of inflation expectations.” On that front, although his group believes that deflation is probable in the next few months, the researchers look for stimulative monetary policy to help accelerate the inflation rate to 1.7 percent in 2017. Last year, the European Commission estimates, euro zone output expanded by a mere 0.8 percent while consumer prices stalled at 0.4 percent. Looking ahead, with elections slated to be held in 2015 in several European Union member countries — Britain, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Poland, Portugal and Spain — the two key themes driving economic performance over the coming year will be quantitative easing and politics, says Wall. These concerns “are not mutually exclusive,” he notes. “Divisions over ECB policy are likely to chime with rising populism and anti-EU sentiment in elections across Europe. In a challenging economic environment, political friction and uncertainty could weigh more heavily on GDP growth.” Indeed, late in January voters in Greece pushed back against the tide and handed power to the anti-austerity, leftist Syriza party.