< The 2015 All-Europe Research Team
Ben Spruntulis & team
Exane BNP Paribas
First-Place Appearances: 8
Total Appearances: 21
Team Debut: 1995
Despite a change in its leadership, the Exane BNP Paribas team earns its sixth consecutive top finish on this roster. In October, Ben Spruntulis was promoted to direct the firm’s research efforts, replacing long-time leader Vincent Laurencin, who became deputy head of equities. The group’s 110 analysts follow 137 French stocks from London and earn plaudits for being both “well connected” and “very experienced and knowledgeable,” as one investor puts it. “I’ve been very impressed at how Exane punches above its weight in research quality. Without a doubt, they provide the top research on French banks.” Among the researchers’ top recommendations are a bullish call on Montrouge-based financial services provider Crédit Agricole and a bearish play on tire maker Cie. Générale des Établissements Michelin of Clermont-Ferrand. In early June, when Crédit Agricole was trading at €11.91, they urged investors to overweight the stock, viewing it as a value proposition — “cheap at 0.9 times tangible equity,” Spruntulis says — but not for too much longer. “We believe the discount will gradually narrow as earnings predictability continues and capital gradually normalizes,” he adds. The share price tumbled to €9.90 in July before trading generally upward to end January at €10.56. Although Crédit Agricole trailed the broader French market by 12.5 percentage points over that period, Exane’s researchers forecast a rise to €12.90. They are not likewise optimistic about Michelin, declaring in a November report that the manufacturer’s “earnings per share momentum [was] unfavorable” and forecasting that it would fail to meet consensus expectations. The company, moreover, has been resisting investors’ hopes regarding a stock-buyback program and pruned capital expenditures in favor of “expansion ambitions,” they advised. Accordingly, the analysts downgraded Michelin from neutral to underperform, at €71.17. As of late January the shares had bucked their expectations, rebounding from a drop to €66.13 in late October to post a 21.9 percent rise, to €86.73, and besting the wider domestic market by 13.1 percentage points. Spruntulis, 35, joined Exane in March 2012 as a retail sector analyst, following six and a half years spent covering the industry at Citi. Previously, he worked as a finance manager at U.K. beverages provider Innocent Drinks and in auditing and transaction services at accounting firm KPMG. He was named the firm’s deputy head of research in April. Spruntulis earned a bachelor’s degree in physiology from England’s University of Leeds.