< The 2015 All-Japan Research Team
Norimasa Shinya
Mizuho Securities Group
First-Place Appearances: 2
Total Appearances: 4
Analyst Debut: 2012
For a second consecutive year, Norimasa Shinya of Mizuho Securities Group merits first place. The researcher, who celebrates his 38th birthday this month, impresses investors with his “very frequent updates on energy policy issues and structural changes in the industry,” in the words of one client. Shinya forecasts that Japan’s energy and utilities companies will post increased earnings for the fiscal year ending in March 2016, citing lower crude oil prices that will help both the electric power and gas players. In addition, electricity providers could also get a lift from potential nuclear power plant restarts this year. He cautions, however, that dividend levels will be limited because corporate leaders in this sector are more intent on shoring up their balance sheets. In addition, valuations are not especially attractive at the moment, Shinya points out. Even so, he is touting Tokyo Gas Co., whose shares leaped 49.1 percent during the 12 months through late March, climbing to ¥755.80 and outperforming Japan’s utilities overall by 26.4 percentage points. Despite that rise, the Tokyo-based company is attractive thanks to its healthy balance sheet, “relatively high return on equity and shareholder returns policy, which targets a combined payout ratio of 60 percent,” explains the analyst. He predicts gains in recurring profit growth for fiscal 2016 and thus expects elevated share buybacks to continue. More broadly, Shinya is focused on domestic energy policy, as the government is already discussing what the nation’s long-term energy targets should be, ahead of the United Nations climate change conference that will convene in Paris in November and December.