< The 2015 All-Japan Research Team
Masatoshi Kikuchi
Mizuho Securities Group
First-place appearances: 3
Total appearances: 11
Analyst debut: 2005
Although Mizuho Securities Group analyst Masatoshi Kikuchi slips back to second place after a year at No. 1, he continues to garner widespread investor acclaim for being an “energetic person who provides essential information and analyses in a timely manner,” as one buy-side supporter puts it. Optimistic for the first half of this year, Kikuchi predicts that the Nikkei 225 Stock Average will climb to 20,000 in June — it closed at 17,450.77 in 2014 and at 19,560.22 in late March — citing the prospects of wage increases, a recovery in consumer spending, almost 20 percent recurring profit growth for the fiscal year that begins this month and a rise in shareholder distributions. For the balance of 2015, however, the 52-year-old strategist anticipates that the index will be flat, held in check by likely U.S. interest rate increases, a temporary supply overhang owing to Japan Post Holdings Co.’s initial public offerings in the fall and waning public support for the Abe administration’s push to allow the military to exercise collective self-defense. He likes such sectors as brokerage, construction and retailing, reasoning that “domestic demand should pick up with higher wage growth.” Corporate governance reform and investor activism are also gaining importance in Japan, he notes. The introduction of the stewardship code for asset managers in February 2014 and the corporate governance code this June both “create incentives for constructive engagement between investors and investees,” Kikuchi observes. “Friendly activism is becoming the mainstream.”