< The 2015 All-Japan Research Team
Toshio Takahashi
Mizuho Securities Group
First-Place Appearances: 1
Total Appearances: 11
Analyst Debut: 2002
Advancing from second place to top this roster for the first time is Mizuho Securities Group’s Toshio Takahashi, 43. He directly covers 18 companies and tracks 33 more names as part of a team. Takahashi holds a contrarian view on Japan’s retailers, whose shares outperformed the nation’s broad market by 12.2 percentage points during the 12 months through late March, climbing 46.3 percent. “Many investors appear to be expecting a rebound in domestic demand on a gradual improvement in wage conditions, but we see no signs of any clear rebound in consumer sentiment,” he says. “In addition, we caution that the weak yen could push up costs and squeeze profits for many firms.” The year-over-year hurdle will be significantly easier after this month as the aftereffects of the April 2014 consumption tax hike wane, he believes. Despite incremental gains anticipated for the labor market, the researcher notes, consumers may become more budget-minded as they face rising prices from the sharp depreciation of the yen and a potential tax increase in April 2017. Japan raised its sales tax by 3 percentage points a year ago, to 8 percent, and a boost to 10 percent is expected. “On the other hand,” he advises, “we believe capital policy shifts by corporate governance code and tourism demand are key investment themes in 2015.” Against this backdrop, Takahashi is urging investors to focus on subsectors with strong defensive characteristics. He has reported on Japanese retailers for nearly two decades, monitoring the space for Kokusai Securities before his May 2000 move to IBJ Securities Co., which became Mizuho Securities later that year. Previously, the analyst tracked machinery and other names for Kokusai, armed with a master’s degree in engineering from Tohoku University.