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Daily Agenda: The Week Ahead, April 18 – 23, 2016

New York’s primaries bring Clinton and Trump to their home turf; ECB issues monetary policy statement; New Orleans hosts Jazzfest.

In the coming days the political circus of New York’s presidential primaries, the ECB’s rate announcement and an update on the state of oil production in the U.S. will be among the dominant sentiment drivers for markets. No one likes to pay taxes, though filers in or visiting New Orleans can at least look forward to a weekend of music.

Monday, April 18: While most years April 15 is the deadline to file income taxes in the U.S., this year Monday is the deadline to settle with Uncle Sam because of Emancipation Day observances in the District of Columbia. Projections for total individual income tax revenues for 2016 are in excess of $1.6 trillion.

Tuesday, April 19: While New York State usually leans Democrat in presidential elections, the fact that the Empire State is home to both Donald Trump and Democratic rival Hillary Clinton (and the birthplace of her primary rival, Bernie Sanders) may set the stage for more primary season political theater than usual. With 29 electoral college votes, tying with Florida for the third-most influential state in the national election, Trump may attempt to test the waters to see if he could sway voters in a state that most recently supported a Republican when Ronald Reagan won his second term in 1984.

Wednesday, April 20: The UN General Assembly hosts its first full day of talks in its 2016 Special Session on Drugs in New York. Originally requested in 2012 by the presidents of Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico, the purpose of the special session is for nations battling drug cartels to call on the developed-markets nations that are net importers of illegal drugs to align better their domestic drug polices to aid in curbing international crime.

Thursday, April 21: The European Central Bank monetary policy statement will be a primary focus of risk narratives for financial markets. While ECB quantitative easing has driven bond markets higher, grumbling among the leaders of EU members has grown louder. ECB president Mario Draghi has become the focus of criticism among elected officials in Germany this past week with Chancellor Angela Merkel opaquely bemoaning the impact of ultra-low interest rates on her nation’s retirement pensions.

Friday, April 22: Analysts expected the Baker Hughes rig count release to confirm that U.S. oil producers’ capacity culls continues on. The week ending April 8 finished off with the third consecutive decline for the headline count with total producing wells falling to 354, eight fewer than the prior week and more than 1,200 lower than the peak hit in October 2014, when the rig count totaled 1,609.

Saturday, April 23: The New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival has been held every year since 1970. Jazz Fest, as it is known more informally, was initially conceived of as a tourist attraction by the Crescent City’s hotel owners’ association. During the 2016 event, which starts April 22 and ends May 1, Stevie Wonder, Pearl Jam and Van Morrison will be among the performers on the main stages while the Archdiocese of New Orleans Gospel Choir will perform in the Gospel Tent, a smaller stage that has been part of the festival since its inception.

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