< The 2016 All-Europe Research Team
Bart Gysens
& team
Morgan Stanley
First-Place Appearances: 2
Total Appearances: 11
Team Debut: 2002
Headlining this roster for a second consecutive year are Bart Gysens and his Morgan Stanley group in London. The team’s “positive stance on the European property sector since 2010 has been an excellent call,” observes one fund manager. In addition, this admirer adds, Gysens “has excellent industry contacts and organizes the best European real estate securities conference.” Going forward, the analysts remain upbeat on their sector, although they recommend that investors be highly selective. “We also highlight that 2016 stock performance will most likely be uneven, with occasional pullbacks around interest rate decisions and political events and with an increased risk of negative macro surprises,” cautions Gysens. One market that shows promise is Spain, where consumer spending is recovering, fundamentals are improving, property prices are rising and valuations are attractive. Indeed, says the 39-year-old leader, “we think stocks that offer exposure to Spanish property should deliver outsize returns [in the] next year and for several years to come.” Examples from their 30-company portfolio include Inmobiliaria Colonial, which owns commercial centers, industrial parks and office buildings; and Merlin Properties Socimi, a real estate investment trust whose holdings include industrial and logistics facilities, offices, shopping centers and urban hotels. Morgan Stanley’s researchers tag both names with an overweight rating. Colonial was trading at €0.58 in mid-January, and they peg it at €0.72. Merlin earns a price target of €12.50, implying a 25.6 percent upside to its level in mid-January, but “over the longer term the stock could reach our €20 bull case,” Gysens says.