< The 2016 All-Japan Research Team

Total Appearances: 5

Analyst Debut: 2012

Norimasa Shinya of Mizuho Securities Group merits first place for a third straight year. Covering 22 Japanese energy companies and utilities, the researcher “understands the nature of the industry very well,” remarks one fund manager. Shinya, 39, expects operations at more nuclear power reactors to resume in the fiscal year beginning next April but still forecasts that earnings at many electric power and gas suppliers will decline on an annual basis, since the governing regulatory model includes a time lag for fuel costs to be recognized — and the beneficial effects of that interval will decrease. Liberalization of the country’s retail electricity market, which took effect this month, is also a concern for the group, he points out. Heightened competition will result in a greater risk of reduced demand in areas traditionally served by the nation’s top two providers, Tokyo Electric Power Co. and Osaka-based Kansai Electric Power Co., compared with that of rivals in other regions, the analyst notes. Although he anticipates a limited impact on the sector’s earnings in the short term, performance over a longer horizon will depend on “how many users will try to shift from the existing electric power companies to new players.” Shinya’s favorite name is Tohoku Electric Power Co., thanks to the Miyagi-based utility’s undervalued shares, progress in the safety inspections at one of its offline nuclear reactors, an increasing number of opportunities to sell power outside its existing service area and an improving financial base. His “good sensitivity analysis,” a second adherent notes, “is crucial at a time when there is so much volatility.”