< The 2016 All-Europe Research Team

2016-02-tom-johnson-all-europe-research-team-paul-roger.jpg

Paul Roger & team
Exane BNP Paribas
First-place appearances: 5

Total appearances: 13

Team debut: 2004

Paul Roger leads his Exane BNP Paribas troupe to a repeat second-place finish. Over the past year the London-based team added two researchers in India, and together the crew monitors 15 regional building and construction names. Seven additional companies are under "shadow coverage," says Roger, 39. "They have the best far-reaching views," attests one portfolio manager. The analysts reiterated their outperform position on Italcementi in January 2015, deeming it a bargain at €4.88 and anticipating an earnings recovery partly on the strength of declining oil prices. In April, with shares of the Italian cement and concrete distributor up 34.6 percent, to €6.57 — and ahead of Europe’s broad market by 20.5 percentage points — they pounded the table, predicting a takeover by cash-rich German rival HeidelbergCement. Roger and his colleagues were right. The companies announced in July that HeidelbergCement would pay €3.7 billion ($4.1 billion) to acquire Italcementi — sending the latter’s stock up 49.5 percent in a single day, to €9.85. In mid-January it was trading at €10.20, up 106.1 percent over the preceding 12 months, during which time European stocks as a whole dropped by 5.9 percent. The transaction is expected to be completed this year. Looking ahead, the researchers recommend that investors also favor Austrian brick-maker Wienerberger, anticipating a surge in European private construction. Its stock closed at €13.88 in mid-January, and they peg it at €19.50.