< The 2016 All-Asia Research Team

Total appearances: 5

Team debut: 2012

The Deutsche Bank researchers in Sameer Goel’s strategy group — which repeats in second place — provide “analysis that is consistently ahead of the curve” and are “good at finding themes,” one portfolio manager observes. “They were the first ones to say that credit-flow growth would come to an end in 2014 and 2015, and they kept giving updates. Unlike others, they pay a lot of attention to markets.” The six strategists work out of Hong Kong and Singapore, and they foresee challenges for the expansion model in Asia. Specifically, “the export cycle is already deep in negative territory, while the credit cycle is reaching its limit across the region,” says Goel, 41. As a result of the current debt overhang, government policymakers in the area that might otherwise engage in deficit spending to spur economic growth are seriously “constrained,” he adds. Against this backdrop, they forecast that rates in Asia will likely remain low for a while — and could even decline. In the face of gradual U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, Goel and his associates expect that “narrowing rate differentials will remain a bearish force, particularly for low-yielding Asian foreign exchange,” he reports. “Given the sweet spot on currencies, we are biased toward tactical relative-value trades at the moment, but look to rotate into long U.S. dollar trades — versus the [South] Korean won, Singapore dollar and Thai baht — as the market readjusts to the Fed.” Their favorite regional market is Indonesia.