< The 2016 All-Japan Research Team

Total Appearances: 16

Analyst Debut: 2001

Makoto Ueno is back on top. The Daiwa Securities Group researcher, 50, slipped to second place last year, when the previously separate Software/Business and Software/Entertainment categories were combined; he captured first place on the former roster in 2009 and 2014. “While sectorwide earnings appear set to remain strong through 2020, disparities among individual firms in terms of earnings and price-earnings multiples will likely widen,” he counsels. Upsides for the group include increased information technology budgets and expansion of such new markets and technologies as cloud computing and mobile devices, he adds, as well as margin expansion for IT service providers. Downsides are higher personnel costs and difficulties in securing staff at subcontracted systems integration firms, in addition to “concerns over a so-called balance-sheet recession in the global economy,” Ueno says. In June he dubbed Tokyo-based financial software developer OBIC Business Consultants Co. a top pick, primarily on valuation, and by mid-March its stock had run far ahead of its peers. The shares closed at ¥4,980, having gained 17 percent over a period in which the domestic sector slumped 15.7 percent. Looking ahead, the analyst favors several of the IT services and cloud computing companies in his 20-stock coverage universe. In particular, he is advising clients that Tokyo’s Oracle Corp. Japan and Trend Micro are poised for strong growth, while NEC Corp. and NTT Data Corp. — which are likewise headquartered in the nation’s capital — boast stable earnings and low risk profiles.