< The 2015 All-America Research Team

Total appearances: 3

Analyst debut: 2013

From the No. 3 position he earned last year, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. researcher Todd Juenger advances to second place, recording his best showing to date. His outlook on the U.S. media industry is decidedly negative. “We believe the sector has just entered a period of prolonged secular decline, as TV audiences move to non-ad-supported and less-ad-supported platforms,” he explains. “This directly and immediately pressures advertising revenue, and ultimately may pressure subscription fee revenue, as well. We believe TV networks will face years of decelerating growth and declining [return on invested capital].” However, he adds, “there are a few bright spots, including the studio business and international markets.” Companies best positioned to perform well despite this challenging backdrop, the analyst believes, are those that have diversified away from television and advertising, including New York–based Time Warner and Burbank, California’s Walt Disney Co. The worst, he warns, are those such as Viacom of New York, which is overly reliant on young audiences — the demographic that is abandoning traditional TV the fastest. Of the nine companies in his coverage universe, Nielsen Holdings is the 48-year-old Juenger’s favorite. The New York–headquartered data tracker’s hard information on consumer behavior in media consumption is of extremely high value as the sector tries to adapt to changing demand, he notes. Accordingly, last October he boosted his rating on the stock from market perform to outperform. By the middle of last month, it had climbed 11.7 percent, to $46.74, beating its sector peers by 3.7 percentage points and pacing the broad market by 7.3 percentage points. Juenger’s price objective for Nielsen is $55.