< The 2014 All-Europe Fixed-Income Research Team

Jens Nordvig & team
Nomura International
First-place appearances: 0

Total appearances: 3

Team debut: 2012

After two years in second place, Nomura International slips to third. Previous leader Geoffrey Kendrick jumped to Morgan Stanley in September, and the five-member squad is now led by newcomer Jens Nordvig — “a standout in the sector for his coverage of the euro,” as one money manager describes the New York–based analyst. The euro is strong even as the euro zone is underperforming relative to other parts of the world, a situation that is “typically not what you have together,” says Nordvig. He and his colleagues, who work out of London, believe that the big question this year is whether the European Central Bank will intervene with more aggressive policies aimed at weakening the currency. If the euro continues to strengthen, “eventually, it’s going to be quite damaging for the economy, which is already on a pretty weak footing,” he notes. They are betting that the ECB will be forced into more dramatic action, resulting in a decline in the euro’s value. Their biggest bull story is the pound, according to Nordvig, partly because the Bank of England is potentially the one major central bank that is relatively close to hiking interest rates. They are therefore vigorously trading sterling from the long side, mostly versus other European currencies to avoid the trades’ being about the dollar, he explains.