"When we try to guess where the euro zones politicians are heading, we have lots of information, and the trick is to figure out which parts are real and which are deliberate disinformation," one London-based macro trader explained to me. "When we try to guess what the Chinese are up to, we have much less information, and sometimes it feels like its all disinformation."
The Communist Partys 18th Party Congress, which ended this week in Beijing after picking the countrys new leaders and replacing most members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the partys ruling body, provided plenty of fresh information but left many market participants struggling to make sense of it all. "When the entire leadership of the worlds second-largest economy changes, surely financial markets have to react," the trader mused. "The question is, react to what?"
How will Beijings leadership transition move markets, and what do we watch for clues?
Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang came out on top, as expected, and there were few surprises about the other five members appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee, the partys ruling body. But the politicking and jockeying for position isnt over yet. "Now that the top seven are in place, we are going to see ripple effects and reshuffling down the line of all their competing and overlapping patron-client networks," one Beijing-based former diplomat e-mailed me.
The date of the party conference had been pushed back, not so much because of the scandal surrounding Politburo candidate Bo Xilai, whose wife murdered the hapless British citizen Neil Heywood, but rather because of deep disagreement over who would sit around the top table. In Beijing, even more than in Washington, personnel is policy.....