Rising Risk, Slowing Growth Hold Creditworthiness in Check
Sovereign creditworthiness has risen only slightly since March, according to senior economists and country-risk analysts who participate in Institutional Investor's Country Credit survey, our exclusive semiannual ranking of global creditworthiness.
The average credit rating climbs to 44.8 on a scale of zero to 100, up just 0.6 point over the past six months and up just 0.2 point from a year earlier.
Norway and Switzerland retain the top two spots, with scores of 95.8 and 95.5, respectively. Germany, with a score of 94, rises from fourth place to third, while Sweden, with 93.6, advances from No. 5 to No. 4. Canada tumbles two notches to fifth place; its score of 93.2 reflects a gain of just 0.1, the smallest among the top five countries.
The nations with the most improved scores since the last installment was published are Guyana (+8.7), Myanmar (+8.5) and Latvia (+8.4). Those with the biggest declines are the Solomon Islands, down 7.2; Swaziland, down 5.9; and Thailand, down 4.2.
The U.S.’s score rose by 1.9, to 93 — enough to propel the country up one level to sixth place.
The U.S. economy is “finally gaining traction,” observes David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and former U.S. Treasury official. But, he adds, “things have only improved a little bit in Europe and Japan, and the developing world is a mixed bag. You can see why survey participants are not excited.”
To view the current ranks and scores of all countries evaluated, click on Global Rankings in the navigation table at right.
To see how each country fares in its particular geographic region, click on Regional Rankings, then choose from among the eight selections: Africa (Sub-Saharan), Asia-Pacific/Far East, Asia-Pacific/South & East, Eastern Europe/Central Asia, Latin America/Caribbean, Middle East/North Africa, North America and Western Europe.
For information on how this ranking was compiled, click on Methodology.
How We Compiled the Ratings
Institutional Investor’s Country Credit ratings are based on information provided by senior economists and sovereign risk analysts at leading global banks and money management and securities firms. The respondents have graded each country on a scale of zero to 100, with 100 representing the least likelihood of default. We weighted participants’ responses according to their institutions’ global exposure. Names of respondents are kept strictly confidential.
The September 2014 Country Credit survey was conducted by Senior Research Editor Jane B. Kenney.