< The 2015 All-Asia Research TeamNiall MacLeod & teamUBSFirst-place appearances: 1
Total appearances: 21
Team debut: 1994At No. 3 is UBS, which earned a runner-up position the past five years and notches its best showing since 2008. Leading the firm’s three-person, Hong Kong–based squad is Niall MacLeod, who joined UBS in 2008. His previous experience includes stints as a European and global equity strategist at Citigroup and a portfolio manager in Asia and Europe. MacLeod holds two master’s degrees, in economics from Scotland’s University of Aberdeen and in European studies from the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium. He and his UBS crew wins investor plaudits for “pushing the frontiers in sell-side research and setting a high standard for the competition,” as one admirer says. The analysts identify “three dominant themes” for the coming months, says MacLeod: “The commodities crunch, interest rate divergence and reforms.” In light of low prices for oil and other substances, they recommend that clients underweight shares in Australia, Indonesia and Malaysia, three major commodities-producing nations. On the interest rate front, the region’s two largest economies, China and India, are poised to benefit from global disparities because “those countries can ease interest rate policy with limited negative consequences for their exchange rates,” he explains. However, when the U.S. Federal Reserve boosts rates, as is expected later this year, Hong Kong and Singapore will “likely face a tougher time,” adds MacLeod. Finally, he notes, China and India are likely to institute reforms “that we think will either boost return on capital or help lower the cost of capital.”