< The 2015 All-Japan Research Team
Naomi Takagi
UBS
First-Place Appearances: 5
Total Appearances: 8
Analyst Debut: 2008
For a fourth year running, Naomi Takagi dominates this lineup. The 47-year-old UBS analyst covers 17 stocks, five more than last year, and her “earnings models are by far the best generated by the sell-side community,” one fund manager declares. “She has a very good understanding of companies’ cost structures, earnings drivers and what to highlight to her clients.” Another fan lauds her “spot-on reports.” Takagi is positive on Japan’s beverages, food and tobacco shares, which outperformed the domestic market by 9.1 percentage points over the 12 months through late March, soaring 43.2 percent. The group boasts traditional strength in sustained and steady development, she advises, and is now enjoying a jolt from expansion beyond Japan. The researcher names processed-food producers the best-performing subsector, thanks in part to improving pricing power. “In processed food we expect continuous earnings growth due to higher unit prices, higher sales domestically as well as overseas and continuous cost savings,” she explains. “Overall, the managements will be keener to improve profit margins.” Her favorite name is Tokyo-based confectioner, dairy products producer and drug manufacturer Meiji Holdings Co. Takagi began urging clients to buy the stock in August, forecasting that management would become more profit-oriented and achieve further improvements in the company’s food business. Sure enough, in December president Masahiko Matsuo announced that Meiji intended to boost its operating margin from a projected 3.6 percent for the fiscal year ended last month to 5 percent in fiscal year 2017 rather than 2020. By the end of March, the stock had rocketed 72.3 percent, to ¥14,590, surpassing its domestic peers by 46.7 percentage points.