Two often reliable indicators are giving mixed signals.
Erik Norland, CME Group
The late summer inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield
curve raised concerns that the U.S. economy might be heading towards a
slowdown, or worse, in 2020. But in mid-October the U.S. Treasury
yield curve flipped back to positive, reflecting optimism in the economy while the private sector version is now pointing to a possible slowdown. Erik Norland, Senior Economist at CME Group, discusses which version of the yield curve does a better job at forecasting economic growth.