Amid a volatile year, investors have more questions than ever about Brazil — and the country’s top research providers are here to provide answers.
“One of the most frequent questions from investors describes well the state of Brazilian equities over this past year: Are Brazilian equities a value trap or a value play?” observed André Carvalho, director of research at Bradesco BBI. Brazilian equities have been trading with depressed multiples and high-risk premia, he added, and the current consensus forecast for the next 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is more than two standard deviations below its historical average.
Carvalho said five “fat negative tail risks” are weighing on the market, including three global and two domestic risks. “In the first group, there is concern about Chinese growth collapsing, risks related to the war in Ukraine, and a possible hard landing in the U.S.,” he said. “In the second group, [there are] concerns about high and sticky inflation in Brazil as well as elevated uncertainty about the fiscal anchor after the presidential election. In our view, these five key risks will be critical to the upcoming performance of Brazilian equities.”
Amid this volatility, the buy side has stuck with domestic research firms for market insights: Bradesco BBI and BTG Pactual have once again tied for first place in Institutional Investor’s 19th annual All-Brazil Research Team.
To select the members of the 19th annual Brazil Research Team, Institutional Investor solicited opinions of directors of research and investment professionals at asset management firms with significant securities holdings in Latin America. We received responses from more than 473 individuals at 305 firms. The names of individuals surveyed are kept confidential to ensure their continuing cooperation.
This year, participants rated their top firms in each sector and then separately rated individual analysts or economists/strategists at those firms to create two distinct rankings for each sector. A numerical score was produced by weighting each vote based on the respondent’s Brazilian commission range and the average rating awarded. The same scores were also weighted by each voting firm’s Brazilian equity assets under management to produce the AUM-weighted rankings.
Using those scores, ranks were determined. Firms/analysts were designated runners‐up when their scores came within 35 percent of the third-place scores. For the analyst rankings, individuals, who switched firms after February 14, 2022, are cited at their previous organizations.
Voters must meet eligibility requirements, and winners must achieve a minimum vote count. All ballots are subject to review by our Research Operations Group.
The 2022 Brazil Research Team was compiled by Senior Project Managers Tucker Ewing, and Associate Project Managers Denise Best and Xiao Lu.