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Why Windows 8 Made Me Sell MSFT

July 16, 2012 at 4:41 PM EST


I sang love serenades to Microsoft in the December issue, but a few weeks ago we sold our shares of Microsoft. Because we believe the stock is undervalued, that decision was not easy. What changed? A very important part of my thesis was the success of Windows 8, an operating system that Microsoft made for both PCs and tablets. When I saw Windows 8 demonstrated in early 2011, it looked like a very innovative, un-Microsoft-like product. Windows 8 was very important for Microsoft’s response to Apple’s iPad — a tablet that was deservingly stealing market share from low-end laptops. Windows 8 was supposed to take Microsoft to the next level, leapfrogging Apple and Google.



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And all this over a beta....wow. No reason to read this blog...you people are idiots.

Jul 26 2012 at 8:59 PM EST

P. hertz.
 

Love your article we need more journalist like you to give bias to institution investor so we can buy part of great business for cheap :) Continue your good work, fundamental and financial analysis are for stupid you lead the way, great analysis. Love that good job.

I read a lot about institutional investor, but this article confirms my bias about them. Wow, make a judgment base on a impression of a beta version to sell a stock value at 41.42$ base on DCF model, 49,65$ base on median p/S ratio, Altman z-score of 5.04, AAA credit rating, predictable company, stable margin , stable EPS growth, strong buy back share program, PE at 10.8, ROE of 12.78, great management, strong and stale brand, patent.... You could be right and I can be wrong and a little rude sorry for that but what are the alternative, for serious business?

Jul 23 2012 at 12:57 AM EST

Wise investor
 

Vitaliy,
You are so right. Windows 8 is a disaster for the desktop user. It is incomprehensible and not intuitive in the slightest degree. This disaster along with the first quarterly loss in Microsoft's history just begs for Steve Ballmer to be replaced. It is time for Little Willy to return from Africa and re-take the responsibiliy for Microsoft.
Microsoft stock is the second biggest item in my portfolio and I am becoming nervous.
Henry Alken

Jul 22 2012 at 3:29 PM EST

HENRY ALKEN
 

Vitaliy,
You are so right. Windows 8 is a disaster for the desktop user. It is incomprehensible and not intuitive in the slightest degree. This disaster along with the first quarterly loss in Microsoft's history just begs for Steve Ballmer to be replaced. It is time for Little Willy to return from Africa and re-take the responsibiliy for Microsoft.
Microsoft stock is the second biggest item in my portfolio and I am becoming nervous.
Henry Alken

Jul 22 2012 at 3:28 PM EST

HENRY ALKEN
 

Vitaliy,
You are so right. Windows 8 is a disaster for the desktop user. It is incomprehensible and not intuitive in the slightest degree. This disaster along with the first quarterly loss in Microsoft's history just begs for Steve Ballmer to be replaced. It is time for Little Willy to return from Africa and re-take the responsibiliy for Microsoft.
Microsoft stock is the second biggest item in my portfolio and I am becoming nervous.
Henry Alken

Jul 22 2012 at 5:16 AM EST

HENRY ALKEN
 

Perhaps you lack not the windows 8 gene, but a modicum of common sense.

Windows 8 is NEW, get it? It does NEW things. And if these new things aren't already encoded from birth into your cerebrum, try hitting the F1 key, or googling "Wiindows 8 Start Button".

For god's sake, LIFT A FINGER, you ignorant, lazy buffoon! Like most journalists today, you sit in your comfortable chair and wait for the world to bring the news to you, instead of going out and doing some investigative research.

Did it EVER OCCUR to you to go FIND OUT what Microsoft was thinking when they put this OS together? NO - of course not, that would have CONSTITUTED DOING WORK! Far easier to sit back and pontificate about your list of whinging complaints. Complaining doesn't require much research, it is true. But neither does it win you many fans, or loyal readers, friend.

Jul 21 2012 at 1:06 PM EST

Wolf 359
 

Perhaps you lack not the windows 8 gene, but a modicum of common sense.

Windows 8 is NEW, get it? It does NEW things. And if these new things aren't already encoded from birth into your cerebrum, try hitting the F1 key, or googling "Wiindows 8 Start Button".

For god's sake, LIFT A FINGER, you ignorant, lazy buffoon! Like most journalists today, you sit in your comfortable chair and wait for the world to bring the news to you, instead of going out and doing some investigative research.

Did it EVER OCCUR to you to go FIND OUT what Microsoft was thinking when they put this OS together? NO - of course not, that would have CONSTITUTED DOING WORK! Far easier to sit back and pontificate about your list of whinging complaints. Complaining doesn't require much research, it is true. But neither does it win you many fans, or loyal readers, friend.

Jul 21 2012 at 1:05 PM EST

Wolf 359
 

Vitaly,
You got that one right!
Windows 8 really stinks. I installed it on my PC and after 4 hours I removed it and went back to XP.
Along with today's first quarterly loss, I think it is time for Steve Ballmer to hang it up.
Let''s get little Willy back from Africa and put him to work!
Henry

Jul 21 2012 at 4:09 AM EST

HENRY ALKEN
 

Vitaly,
You got that one right!
Windows 8 really stinks. I installed it on my PC and after 4 hours I removed it and went back to XP.
Along with today's first quarterly loss, I think it is time for Steve Ballmer to hang it up.
Let''s get little Willy back from Africa and put him to work!
Henry

Jul 21 2012 at 4:07 AM EST

HENRY ALKEN
 

Microsoft is the best advert for aggressive antitrust policies.

It should have been broken up into an operating system and application company long ago.

By now there would have been a version of MS Office able to run on Windows. This alone is proof that have any company control 80% of both the OS and Office suite is a bad idea. MS has stifled innovation; and has not innovated. It merely copied and bullied its way to the top.

When the history of computing and antitrust law is written this will be its darkest days. Future generations will wonder how on earth did we manage to get it so wrong.

Microsoft has probably held back innovation in software development by abusing its monopoly to create duplicate standards, ruin startups (like Netscape), having people constantly update inferior products, stealing ideas...

Jul 20 2012 at 10:36 PM EST

Stochos
 

Click the desktop tile and it functions like windows 7

Jul 20 2012 at 8:10 PM EST

Darin brown
 

@IDAMAN:

"My iPad is useless except when I read the "paper" in the little boys room. Office is an important franchise."

You do realize that 1) you can work with Word and Excel documents on your iPad and 2) you can get Pages, Numbers and Keynote for iOS, which will do nearly all that Office does, don't you? Oh, and you can edit photos and video, create music, and more on the iPad. I've seen college students taking notes on an iPad at least as fast as they can with a laptop. Some use one of the many iPad cases that include keyboards. Airlines are now issuing iPads to their aircrews (as is the US Air Force). Hospitals and large medical practices are adopting iPads for physicians and nurses; it means that they don't have to have a PC in every exam room and office, for example, and the iPads are cheaper in the long run.

It sounds like you need to explore the App Store a bit more, with an open mind.

Jul 20 2012 at 1:25 AM EST

GeorgeS
 

@Charles: "For me the advantage of Windows over Mac is that while Mac OS is good, and the UI is slick, I just like to be able to easily get to the file system."

??? I can get to the file system on my Mac is less than a second. The Finder shows the file system. What do you want to do that you can't do in the Finder but you can do in Windows (NOT in DOS!)?

Jul 20 2012 at 1:15 AM EST

GeorgeS
 

Windows peaked with Windows XP. I am so glad that my PCs and notebooks still have the reinstall disks with XP and I have the service packs on a pen drive. I am going to use those PCs and notebooks until they are no longer repairable and stick with XP (and for the couple of Win7 machines, the same). We have no need to "upgrade" to Windows 8 until we need new PCs, which I don't expect will be for a long time as long we IT keeps the cases cleaned from dust and has spares to replace RAM, failed hard drives, and fans. Keep them cool and clean and most computers will run for a decade or more.

The next "upgrade" we will be doing is to move to Linux servers and move more apps to our salesforce's iPads and iPhones. We are even evaluating OpenOffice, but it is just not there yet, so we'll stick with MS Office for now, so long as it runs on our XP/Win7 systems - after that we just stay with the existing versions of Office until OpenOffice improves to the point we can use that to replace it and go to Linux entirely.

Jul 19 2012 at 9:52 PM EST

Mike Catino
 

Interesting article but I think a great many people miss what seems to be the point of Windows 8. It isn't about running a tablet OS on the desktop, it's about unifying the microsoft platform across devices and killing off the Win32 legacy.

Windows 8 is more about the ecosystem than it is the UI. It is evident that their core strategy is not to bring a tablet UI to the desktop, but instead to try to create a means to seamlessly share and interact across devices.

Microsoft and many other firms tried for years to get cross-platform working and failed. Examples, silverlight and flash. Both were to be enablers to allow you to run seamlessly across platforms. Apple killed both by restricting 3rd party frameworks from running on the ipad.

Windows 8 is Microsoft's game changing approach. Rather than try to unify platforms they're shifting gears, no longer focusing on unifying other platforms and instead are simply focusing on unifying their own.

The day is not far off where you can have the same profile, apps, and experience across all Microsoft and possibly 3rd party based devices. From a powerful desktop, to your laptop, media center, tablet, phone and even embedded devices.

The IPad may be winning now, but how long do you think being trapped in a single platform will work? Apple made the same mistake in the past, pairing their hardware and software while Microsoft opened things up so their software would run on anything.

The end game isn't to have to drag your computing experience with you everywhere, it's to enable your computing experience to seamlessly be wherever you go. Microsoft demonstrated as much in their future vision video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6cNdhOKwi0


Oh, and if you find yourself missing the start button, try hitting the windows key and then typing in what app you want.

Jul 19 2012 at 9:38 PM EST

Denis
 

MSFT is a monopoly and hence it gives us Soviet Style products.

Let's take a look at the trend here.

Windows ME = failure

Windows Vista = failure

Windows 8 = failure.

MSFT should be broken up by the FTC. I find the author's motives dubious.

Jul 19 2012 at 8:09 PM EST

Burt
 

Absolutely right - while it makes a lot of sense for MS to reuse the underlying codebase that is Windows, it does not make sense to reuse the same UI. Why they couldn't layer a different UI on the same kernel is beyond me, but I guess MS is such a behemoth that after all the layers of executive decision making had been done, there wasn't the ability to change the initial mistake/misunderstanding when it came to execution.

Maybe they'll recover for Windows 9, but I think this will give the other platforms so much of a lead that MS will have to go the way of DEC or IBM.

Jul 19 2012 at 6:51 PM EST

AndyB
 

Steve Ballmer needs to be replaced. He's taking msft over a cliff. The Skype purchase was $8B and makes little sense. The failed ad software venture. Now W8. This stock is a short sale candidate.

Jul 19 2012 at 6:49 PM EST

Tom
 

How is msft undervalued in your opinion if your opinion also includes their biggest product being a huge market disappointment?

Jul 19 2012 at 6:38 PM EST

tech bull
 

Why does interface need to be same on pc and tablet? I have used PC for years. I got an Amazon fire and quickly figured out how to use it. It was designed for touch.

Need for same interface on both I assume is a branding question - not a usability question. If so then the brand = confusion.

Jul 19 2012 at 6:20 PM EST

gordon
 

I totally agree. I downloaded the beta, something I normally never do, but I had a spare computer and figured I'd give it a shot.

Confusing as hell for sure. And it obscures the file and operating system pretty much completely until you discover the back door. For me the advantage of Windows over Mac is that while Mac OS is good, and the UI is slick, I just like to be able to easily get to the file system. With Win8 it's possible but under too many layers.

I also took a number of tries before I could figure out how to turn the damn computer off. Why should something that simple be so hard to find? Like you said, maybe good for phones and tablets, but for PCs, negatory.

But this also may be a function of my long-time Windows background. Maybe youngsters are fine with this style of interface. But I'm guessing a lot of people are going to hang on to Windows 7 for a long time, just as they did with XP. Windows 7 is just fine for me, and will be for quite a while.

Jul 19 2012 at 6:10 PM EST

Charles
 

Is this really a surprise? Microsoft seems to rush (insert product) into production only to tweak, revamp, or replace it later on. They're playing catch-up and will continue to play catch-up as long as they continue with this mindset/business model.

Jul 19 2012 at 6:07 PM EST

Chris
 

Did it ever occur to you that you are not supposed to use the mouse on the touchscreen? have you ever used a mouse with iPad?

Jul 19 2012 at 5:56 PM EST

techy
 

Steve Ballmer needs to be replaced. He's taking msft over a cliff. The Skype purchase was $8B and makes little sense. The failed ad software venture. Now W8. This stock is a short sale candidate.

Jul 19 2012 at 5:50 PM EST

Tom
 

Totally agree with this post and you have enough conviction to put your money where your mouth is. Windows is only relevant as a "desktop" OS with its legacy of Win32 application ecosystem and it is irrelevant in every other place Microsoft has tried to port it.

However, Microsoft wants to start anew with Metro to unify everything into a new "metro" or WinRT ecosystem at the expense of Win32, which is fine, but people only really use Windows for its applications. If Microsoft wants to start from scratch, then people just won't stick around.

Jul 19 2012 at 3:51 PM EST

Lji
 

It ought to be an iPad killer then, because nothing is more confusing than an Apple interface.

Jul 19 2012 at 3:34 PM EST

David Anderson
 

To move between your desktop and the rest of your Windows 8 PC, you'll turn to where you always have to switch between programs: the lower left corner of the desktop.

But you'll notice the Start button is no longer there. Instead you have a hot corner in the lower left that brings up a prompt to go back to the Start screen.

This shows what is perhaps the biggest change PC users are going to have to get used to in Windows 8. The traditional Windows desktop is no longer the primary interface. Your PC desktop is now just another app that you switch into and out of using the Metro-style Start screen.

Getting back to the Start screen from the lower left corner works whether you're in the traditional desktop or any other app. Just let your mouse hover over the lower left corner, and a mini-Start screen will pop-up. Clicking the pop-up will take you back to the Start screen.

You can also right-click the Start screen hot corner to bring up a menu of features familiar to longtime Windows users such as Programs and Features, Network Connections, Device Manager, Command Prompt, Task Manager, Control Panel, Windows Explorer, Search, and Run. http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/251083/a_guide_to_getting_around_the_windows_8_beta_with_a_mouse.html

Easily revive the Classic Start Menu hidden within Windows 8 http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/window-on-windows/easily-revive-the-classic-start-menu-hidden-within-windows-8/5945

Jul 19 2012 at 6:25 AM EST

cloudsandskye
 

1) Win8 upgrades for existing hardware is supposed to be minimal
2) most Win8 software sold will ship with new hardware. I guess laptops with touchscreen capability will be widely available
3) one review I read stated that using WIn8 with a mouse/keyboard combo was not intuitive AT FIRST, but easy once one figured it out. The reviewer assumed MSFT would include a quick tutorial once installed. (Let's hope so)
4) I think u underestimate the importance of WinRT shipping with Office, no extra charge. My iPad is useless except when I read the "paper" in the little boys room. Office is an important franchise.

Jul 19 2012 at 1:13 AM EST

idaman
 

1) Win8 upgrades for existing hardware is supposed to be minimal
2) most Win8 software sold will ship with new hardware. I guess laptops with touchscreen capability will be widely available
3) one review I read stated that using WIn8 with a mouse/keyboard combo was not intuitive AT FIRST, but easy once one figured it out. The reviewer assumed MSFT would include a quick tutorial once installed. (Let's hope so)
4) I think u underestimate the importance of WinRT shipping with Office, no extra charge. My iPad is useless except when I read the "paper" in the little boys room. Office is an important franchise.

Jul 19 2012 at 1:04 AM EST

idaman
 

1) Win8 upgrade sales for existing laptops is supposed to be minimal.
2) Most new laptops will be touchscreen.
3) I think you underestimate the importance of shipping Office with WinRT, no extra charge
4) I am not sure about this, but I read a review saying using a mouse keyboard combo on Win8 metro screen was not obvious AT FIRST, but was easy once u figured it out. The reviewer hoped a 2 minute tutorial will be shipped with the product.

Jul 18 2012 at 12:47 AM EST

idaman
 

This about sums it up:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3qGX3PNphw
LOLOL!!!

Jul 18 2012 at 10:35 PM EST

Dirk Friedrich