Volatility has returned to Brazil. Through much of last year and the first weeks of 2010, the nations benchmark Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros Bovespa index seemed capable of going in only one direction up but financial crises half a world away have reminded investors that what goes up can and often does come down.
The turbulence makes little sense in light of the fact that Brazil is less affected by external factors than ever, owing to robust domestic growth. The most important highlight from this period is the continuous outperformance of consumer-related stocks over the commodity producers, explains Carlos Constantini, head of research at Itaú Securities in São Paulo.
The second half of 2009 was wonderful the market was on a nonstop tear, adds Rodrigo Góes, co-head of research at BTG Pactual in São Paulo.
The Bovespa index hit 70,451.11 in January, a gain of 72.6 percent over one year earlier, then plunged to 62,762.70 the following month amid investor concerns that the debt crisis in Dubai and speculation of an even more serious situation in Greece would set back the worlds faltering economic recovery. Once it became apparent that those two crises could be contained, investors returned to Brazilian equities and sent the Bovespa soaring to 71,784.78 in April.
The rally didnt last long. That month, China one of Brazils primary trading partners announced that it was curtailing its stimulus spending in an effort to cool its own overheated market; skittish investors, concerned about the impact a downturn in China would have on Brazil, abandoned Brazilian equities in search of safer havens. By May the index had plunged to 58,192.08.
The Bovespa has recovered a bit, but volatility has been the norm and probably will continue to be, Góes explains. The fundamentals of the Brazilian economy are solid and would probably warrant higher valuations for the Bovespa, but the shaky global economic environment has been preventing it from performing better.
Trying to make sense of the these wild gyrations has been challenging. Money managers need insight into the markets mood swings, and investors say no firm does a better job of providing the type of research they deem essential than Itaú Securities, which leads the 2010 All-Brazil Research Team, Institutional Investors seventh annual ranking of the nations top equity and fixed-income analysts. Itaú, which captured second place last year, wins 14 total team positions, four more than in 2009.
Two firms tie for the No. 2 spot: BTG Pactual, the outfit that was created last September when Rio de Janeirobased asset management firm BTG Investments bought last years top-ranked UBS Pactual, and Credit Suisse, which jumps from No. 4. The firms claim 12 team positions each, up from 11 and nine, respectively.
J.P. Morgan nearly doubles the number of its positions, from five to nine, and in so doing rises two rungs, to fourth. Rounding out the top five is BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, which falls from No. 2; the firm wins eight positions, down from ten in 2009. Results are based on responses from more than 400 asset managers at some 250 institutions, domestic and foreign, managing $240 billion in Brazilian equities and $72 billion in Brazilian debt.
The volatility in Brazils stock market is echoed in investment research operations, with wild fluctuations in the number of analysts employed and companies covered. Itaú has 30 analysts covering Brazil, six fewer than last year after the firm reassigned some researchers to other Latin American markets; even so, the number of Brazilian stocks Itaú analysts track increased, from 125 to 129, Constantini says.
BTG Pactual added ten researchers to the 18 it acquired from UBS and increased its coverage universe from 68 companies to 107. When BTG took us over, they gave us a generous budget to find the best people, says Góes, who is the top-ranked analyst in Aerospace, Transportation & Industrials for a sixth consecutive year. (Analysts ranked No. 1 in their respective sectors are listed and the complete list of winning analysts, including those ranked second, third and runner-up, click here.) We added head count to every single sector and are still expanding. We plan to add another 25 stocks to our coverage universe by year-end.
Credit Suisse kept its research operations stable, with 21 analysts tracking about 110 companies. We have maintained a steady commitment in spite of volatile market conditions, explains São Paulobased Emerson Leite, co-head of Latin American equity research at Credit Suisse; hes also ranked third in Chemicals & Oil. When the market turbulence subsides, Leite says, the Swiss bank will begin adding analysts.
J.P. Morgan picked up three analysts, bringing its total to 25; they cover 95 stocks, up from 85, according to Ben Laidler, the firms New Yorkbased head of Latin American equity research: We wanted to be closer to companies and clients, to provide a more comprehensive local view to go with our global strengths.
One of those strengths is analyst Saul Martinez, who vaults from runner-up to capture the top spot for the first time in Banking & Financial Services. Backers single out Martinezs coverage of Itaú Unibanco Holding for special praise. The 36-year-old, New Yorkbased analyst upgraded both the preferred shares and the American depositary receipts from neutral to overweight on a dip in May, at 32.85 reais and $17.56, respectively, after Bank of America Corp. announced that it would sell its stake in the São Paulobased institution.
We felt that investors had the opportunity to buy a best-in-class bank with above-peer profitability levels and a solid growth outlook at a very reasonable valuation, Martinez says. Since the upgrade the stock leapt 20.5 percent, to R39.59, and the ADRs jumped 27.5 percent, to $22.39, through July. During the same period the Bovespa index rose 16 percent and the Standard & Poors 500 index inched up only 2.8 percent.
Martinez, who earned a masters degree at Princeton Universitys Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs in 1998, joined J.P. Morgan in New York as a banks analyst that same year. He moved to Bear, Stearns & Co. in 2000 to cover Latin American financial institutions. When JPMorgan Chase & Co. acquired Bear Stearns Cos. in June 2008, Martinez found himself back at the firm where he began his career.
Another analyst at No. 1 for the first time is Paula Kovarsky; the Itaú researcher rises from second place to rule the roost in Chemicals & Oil. Kovarsky, 36, who is headquartered in São Paulo, knows the industry well: After earning a bachelors degree in mechanical engineering at Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro in 1996, she worked as a mergers and acquisitions specialist in the business development office of Royal Dutch Shell for ten years.
In January, Kovarsky advised clients that São Paulobased petrochemicals giant Braskems plan to acquire rival Quattor Petroquímica would likely be an expensive venture. Even though state-run Petróleo Brasileiro (better known as Petrobras), which owned a 40 percent stake in Quattor, had agreed to contribute a massive amount of cash to equalize the capital structure, Kovarsky wasnt impressed. She broke with the consensus and reiterated her neutral rating on Braskem, at R13.61.
They all bet on a free lunch to be paid by Petrobras, Kovarsky says. Braskem paid a high price for Quattor, and after the acquisition shares underperformed the Bovespa by 10 percent. In June, after the euphoria died down, Kovarsky switched directions and upgraded the company to outperform, at R11.70, citing cost-cutting initiatives and operational improvements at Quattor. By late July the stock had bubbled up 12.9 percent, to R13.21. During the same period the sector slid 4 percent.
Taking a contrarian stance also worked out well for BofAs Felipe Hirai, a runner-up last year in Natural Resources. This year that sector was divided into Metals & Mining and Pulp & Paper, and Hirai skyrockets to the No. 1 spot in Metals & Mining. The New Yorkbased analyst insisted in July 2009 that the market was underestimating just how high the price of iron ore might go, and he upgraded the ADRs of the worlds largest iron-ore producer, Vale, from neutral to buy.
The stock was trading at $16.37 and went up 10.4 percent on the day of our upgrade unusual movement, given Vales high liquidity, says Hirai, 31. By mid-January the ADRs had shot up to $30.12, but Hirai believed investors were still being overly bearish, so he reiterated his recommendation. We had an out-of-consensus call that iron-ore prices were going to increase by 50 percent in 2010, while market consensus was at 20 to 25 percent.
The price of iron ore skyrocketed in the second quarter and Vales share price rose along with it, peaking at $34.31 in mid-April before being dragged down by market volatility. The stock closed July at $26.94, gaining a whopping 64.6 percent since the first upgrade. Hirai, who earned a bachelors degree in business at São Paulos Fundação Getulio Vargas in 2001, joined Merrill in 2006 after working as a metals and mining analyst at Hedging-Griffo, an asset management firm headquartered in São Paulo that was later acquired by Credit Suisse.
Hirai is not the only FGV alumnus making an appearance at No. 1: São Paulobased Guilherme Vilazante, a 1999 graduate with a masters degree in economics, is back on top in Real Estate after spending last year in the runner-up position. Vilazante, 34, who joined Barclays Capital in February 2009 from UBS Pactual, reiterated his valuation-driven buy recommendation on Agre Empreendimentos Imobiliários in February, at R4.60. In May, PDG Realty Empreendimentos e Participações announced it would acquire Agre in an all-stock deal in which shareholders would receive 0.495 share of PDG stock for each Agre share they own. In June, when the share exchange took place, PDGs stock stood at R15.85. By the end of July, it had shot up 18.1 percent, to R18.72.
Felipe Mattar is back on top in Electric & Other Utilities, having spent last year in second place after a change in employers; the São Paulobased analyst moved from Citi to Barclays in June 2009. Mattar upgraded Cía. de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo, or Sabesp, a state-run water and sewage services provider, in March, at R31.92, citing valuation and improving earnings. The stock had gushed to R37.50 by late June, a gain of 17.5 percent that bested the sector by 18.2 percentage points, before receding to R35.17 one month later. Mattar, 35, earned a bachelors degree in business administration at the University of São Paulo in 1998, then joined Merrill Lynch in São Paulo as a utilities analyst before moving to Deutsche Bank and then to Citi.
These analysts and the other members of the All-Brazil Research Team have their work cut out for them as investors seek guidance on the often-conflicting messages they are receiving about the stamina of Brazils economic recovery especially ahead of next months presidential elections. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has ruled the country since 2003, is ineligible to run, owing to term limits, and many wonder if his successor will be able to keep Brazils economic momentum going.
Experts disagree. In July the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for the nations real gross domestic product growth for 2010, from 5.5 to 7.1 percent. That same month, however, Brazils Ministry of Finance issued its own GDP projections, anticipating growth of only 6.5 percent in 2010; the ministry expects the economy to slow next year, to 5.5 percent GDP growth.
The IMF also urged Brasília to take further steps to tighten credit and stave off inflation, but after raising the benchmark Selic rate by 50 basis points the third increase this year the central bank signaled that it might raise the rate only one more time this year, at its next meeting (scheduled for this month), then pause until next year.
Finally, the volatility may be evidence that it is possible to have too much of a good thing. As one of the few places in the world where investors have been eager to gobble up equities, Brazil has seen its market for initial and secondary offerings surge with mixed results. In June, Banco do Brasils new-share offering raised R9.76 billion; the stock since gained 23.9 percent, through July. Other offerings have fared less well. Shipbuilder OSX Brasil raised R2.45 billion in March, far less than the R5.5 billion the company was expecting, and the dismal results prompted the cancellation of EBX Groups IPO; both companies are owned by billionaire Eike Batista.
There were lots of IPOs and follow-ons putting significant pressure on the market and contributing to weak performance this year, as the market became saturated, says BTG Pactuals Góes.
Petrobras postponed its mammoth, $25 billion share sale, originally scheduled for July, until this month at the earliest. The delay is contributing to market jitters which means investors will continue to seek the calming insights of top analysts such as those on the 2010 All-Brazil Research Team.