On December 1, the economic gurus made it official: The U.S. has been in recession for a year. William Zollars, who runs giant Overland, Kansas–based trucking company YRC Worldwide, could have told them that a lot sooner. YRC makes its money ferrying materials and products, so it has long been a leading indicator of changing demand. Shipping volume has been sliding steadily for at least two years, and the company’s stock has been plummeting since March 2007. YRC’s share price, which topped $60 in 2005, was at $2.80 at the end of 2008.

But Zollars is as upbeat as a realist can be. Being a leading indicator, he notes, cuts both ways. "We may start hurting in a recession before anyone else," he says, "but then, we’ll see the recovery first too."

By the end of 2009, he promises, the...