Spanish Banks Need €100 Billion, Analysts Say
Just where the money required to bail out troubled Spanish banks will come from remains unclear.
By Neil Sen
The full extent of the huge problems facing Spains banks is becoming embarrassingly clear while the sovereign debt market continues to punish recession-hit Spain, making it still more difficult for the government to raise money to bail them out. Bank recapitalizations could amount to as much as 100 billion ($124 billion), according to some analysts. On May 30 the yield on Spains 10-year bond climbed a further 21 basis points to 6.66 percent, close to the 7 percent level which is widely regarded as unsustainable, before falling back on the afternoon of May 31 to 6.45 percent, even as Spains Economy Minister Luis de Guindos insisted the government would foot the growing bill for the banks. Both he and the European Central Bank denied rumors that the latter would indirectly help to fund a recapitalization of Bankia, the countrys fourth-biggest bank by assets.
Spains banks will have write down many more billions of euros of their loans to the real estate sector, according to a senior Spanish expert on the market. So far Spains banks have identified 184 billion of problem and nonperforming loans in their total exposure to real estate developers of 307 billion. But Mikel Echavarren, chairman of the Madrid-based real estate advisory firm Irea says, Its impossible that 120 billion of the loans to real estate developers are performing. We estimate, based on our work with more than 80 corporations, that perhaps 40 or 50 billion are performing loans. He says, The Bank of Spains rules on valuing real estate loans are flawed. Banks are asked to assess the value of the collateral the land or the buildings without reference to the actual ability of the developers to repay the loans at a time when there are few buyers for that collateral. Nor have problem loans in the banks total private sector....